A conceptual attempt at crashing the TF2 economy

[Ichise]

I'm not an Economics major, and frankly I've been doing too much math recently to think this through logically, so if there is a major gaping hole in my logic, have fun bashing this.

Let's first presume that you had unlimited access to keys (just for the moment, we'll take care of that at the bottom), and that you made it known on basically every medium available that you were selling keys for 1.5 ref. You also emphasize the fact that anything worth more than a key is not worth anything to you; as in, you will sell 3 keys for 4.5 ref, but a Genuine Point and Shoot will get them nothing. Now, over the course of a bit (who knows how long), basically every hat trader on the internet would eventually hear of this trader who is selling hats for 1.5 apiece (note: you actually do sell them to anyone who asks).

So what does this accomplish? Well, there are a few obvious effects. People trying to sell keys for more than 1.5 are going to get shut down pretty fast. With so many keys on the market, at some point their value will decrease even without your sales. With so many keys, people will start using them more and more on crates, throwing the price of stranges down the drain.

Also, until people really start figuring out what's going on, a lot of traders will rush to sell their high-tiered stuff for a TON of metal in order to get tons of keys in order to get even higher-tiered stuff. But.... if everyone knows that metal is now worth more because it can buy keys, no one will buy hats for keys. And if someone has enough metal to buy an unusual, they will have already exchanged it for keys, so few people will carry the materials to buy any decent hats and miscs, let alone unusuals. The result: everything decent in the economy will be practically unable to be sold, and in essence, worth jack shit.

For everyone that figures this all out, they will pounce on this opportunity in the first week or so, and sell all their hats and keys for metal, stock up on keys, buy the hats they've always wanted, maybe save some keys for unboxes, and then get out of the economy. When this whole thing is over, the economy will be irreparably destroyed, so people will just get the hats they want and then accept those as the last hats they will buy for a long, long time. tl;dr: the hour of reckoning for the traders and the economy itself will come.

But how the hell would you support this? Obviously you would need a few accounts, a lot of time, and some extra people to help keep this going. But the real constraint is money. How would you get these "infinite keys"? Well, let's run the numbers (I am good with numbers, but I haven't fact-checked these against the real statistics, so I'll be as generous as possible). Assume there are upwards of 400,000 people who play TF2, of whom 25% care about the economy. But let's face it; by the time this plan is up and running, at best 6,000 people who care enough about the economy--and have the resources--to fuel this dastardly plan will have bought in. Now, considering that we only have to worry about the metal they have, plus a bit of inevitable smelting, and maybe some good hard trades, each of them will have around 10 ref lying around. NOTE: I don't care about their Bills or their Blazing Kabutos or their Cloudy Moon Team Captains, because once they figure out that they need to sell those ASAP, it will be too late. So somewhere around 60,000 ref will be flying at us. 60,000ref/(1.5ref/key)=40,000 keys to get this plan together. 40,000keys*($2.50/key)=$100,000.

Alright, so that is a bit tough to manage. But for someone devoted enough to pull this whole thing off, and theoretically with the resources, it isn't an outlandishly high number. Never mind that Valve would become so rich they would probably give you anything you ask for, when you think about someone who would topple an online economy for fun, $100,000 would probably be chump change. A stretch, but to wreck an economy of around 100,000 people at $1 a person would be pretty damn funny.

So...... anyone want to start collecting?

[Knees of Justice]

Or... just wait for TF3 to be announced.

[Saber]

what are you some kind of nerd
oh wait

[Ichise]

Or... just wait for TF3 to be announced.

TF what now? Valve isn't processing that last character correctly, all I'm getting is "2 Episode 1".

[Spyder]

I never, ever, ever, ever, ever thought about the TF2 Economy until I read this thread.

I mean, they're just hats.

[Wakka]

bored and obsessed with trading so

With so many keys, people will start using them more and more on crates, throwing the price of stranges down the drain.

given that old crates don't drop anymore, salvaged crates are rare, and keys are still 1.5 ref, expensive stranges would only take a modest hit

But.... if everyone knows that metal is now worth more because it can buy keys, no one will buy hats for keys.

if anything, keys will become an easier currency to deal with now that their metal value is completely fixed

And if someone has enough metal to buy an unusual, they will have already exchanged it for keys, so few people will carry the materials to buy any decent hats and miscs, let alone unusuals. The result: everything decent in the economy will be practically unable to be sold, and in essence, worth jack shit.

actually the main currencies in large value trades are high level promos like bills, buds, max heads, etc. this also ignores the fact that a good portion of expensive trades involve real world money, and most items with much worth have a fairly set USD price tag on them.

For everyone that figures this all out, they will pounce on this opportunity in the first week or so, and sell all their hats and keys for metal, stock up on keys, buy the hats they've always wanted, maybe save some keys for unboxes, and then get out of the economy. When this whole thing is over, the economy will be irreparably destroyed, so people will just get the hats they want and then accept those as the last hats they will buy for a long, long time. tl;dr: the hour of reckoning for the traders and the economy itself will come.

i dont understand how simply halving the metal:key exchange rate is going to make everyone panic and leave trading forever...

lastly

(x) people who play TF2, of whom 25% care about the economy.

this is not even close to correct

i don't have an actual response because this plan doesnt really make sense to me but those are the bits that caught my attention

[Hatred]

I never, ever, ever, ever, ever thought about the TF2 Economy until I read this thread.

I mean, they're just hats.

yup ... got my 3 fav hats and dont give 2 shits about anything else ....

[Ichise]

bored and obsessed with trading so

With so many keys, people will start using them more and more on crates, throwing the price of stranges down the drain.

given that old crates don't drop anymore, salvaged crates are rare, and keys are still 1.5 ref, expensive stranges would only take a modest hit

But.... if everyone knows that metal is now worth more because it can buy keys, no one will buy hats for keys.

if anything, keys will become an easier currency to deal with now that their metal value is completely fixed

And if someone has enough metal to buy an unusual, they will have already exchanged it for keys, so few people will carry the materials to buy any decent hats and miscs, let alone unusuals. The result: everything decent in the economy will be practically unable to be sold, and in essence, worth jack shit.

actually the main currencies in large value trades are high level promos like bills, buds, max heads, etc. this also ignores the fact that a good portion of expensive trades involve real world money, and most items with much worth have a fairly set USD price tag on them.

For everyone that figures this all out, they will pounce on this opportunity in the first week or so, and sell all their hats and keys for metal, stock up on keys, buy the hats they've always wanted, maybe save some keys for unboxes, and then get out of the economy. When this whole thing is over, the economy will be irreparably destroyed, so people will just get the hats they want and then accept those as the last hats they will buy for a long, long time. tl;dr: the hour of reckoning for the traders and the economy itself will come.

i dont understand how simply halving the metal:key exchange rate is going to make everyone panic and leave trading forever...

lastly

(x) people who play TF2, of whom 25% care about the economy.

this is not even close to correct

i don't have an actual response because this plan doesnt really make sense to me but those are the bits that caught my attention

It doesn't, but its fun to think about. I concur with you about the rare stranges and such; in fact, upon reflection, this may raise their price. However, when it comes to the fixing for the key-metal rate, in the long run that would make keys easier to deal with, but I am only talking about the short term. Same with the number of people who deal with the TF2 economy, because I really only care about a week's time or so. Sorry about being so off with the number of people, been trying to get statistics, but have no idea where to look. Just inflate the cost of pulling this off a little and the same logic will apply.

The whole point of the plan would be that it would disorganize prices for long enough for shit to happen. If it caught on so fast that the price of keys was fixed within the first week, then while a lot of people would be pissed, the economy would last. I'm betting on the fact that the community would not adjust that fast. As long as keys--the standard for buying most decent hats and stranges, plus buds, bills, etc--are being bought cheap, people won't want to trade their high-tiered stuff to get those cheap keys at the same price as before. Metal will become better however, because it becomes the key to really inexpensive keys. I guess I could do some empirical tests with friends and classmates at some point.